Concurrent threats and extinction risk in a long-lived, highly fecund vertebrate with parental care.

Detecting declines and quantifying extinction risk of long-lived, highly fecund vertebrates, including fishes, reptiles, and amphibians, can be challenging. In addition to the false notion that large clutches always buffer against population declines, the imperiled status of long-lived species can often be masked by extinction debt, wherein adults persist on the landscape for several years after populations cease to be viable. Here we develop a demographic model for the eastern hellbender (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis), an imperiled aquatic salamander with paternal care. We examined the individual and interactive effects of three of the leading threats hypothesized to contribute to the species' demise: habitat loss due to siltation, high rates of nest failure, and excess adult mortality caused by fishing and harvest. We parameterized the model using data on their life history and reproductive ecology to model the fates of individual nests and address multiple sources of density-dependent mortality under both deterministic and stochastic environmental conditions. Our model suggests that high rates of nest failure observed in the field are sufficient to drive hellbender populations toward a geriatric age distribution and eventually to localized extinction but that this process takes decades. Moreover, the combination of limited nest site availability due to siltation, nest failure, and stochastic adult mortality can interact to increase the likelihood and pace of extinction, which was particularly evident under stochastic scenarios. Density dependence in larval survival and recruitment can severely hamper a population's ability to recover from declines. Our model helps to identify tipping points beyond which extinction becomes certain and management interventions become necessary. Our approach can be generalized to understand the interactive effects of various threats to the extinction risk of other long-lived vertebrates. As we face unprecedented rates of environmental change, holistic approaches incorporating multiple concurrent threats and their impacts on different aspects of life history will be necessary to proactively conserve long-lived species.

Niche partitioning and the storage effect facilitate coexistence in an amphibian community.

Virtually all natural community assemblages are dominated by a handful of common species. Dominant species can exert negative impacts on biodiversity through competitive exclusion, and thus there is a strong incentive to understand imbalances in community composition, changes in dominance hierarchies through time, and mechanisms of coexistence. Pond-breeding amphibians that utilize ephemeral wetlands provide an excellent opportunity to evaluate theoretical predictions of community composition in stochastic environments. One of the most striking features of pond-breeding amphibians is the marked stochastic fluctuations in abundance across years. Given strong theoretical and empirical links between evenness and biomass, one would expect community evenness to change from year to year. Moreover, if different species exhibit different boom-and-bust reproductive cycles, then a storage effect may help to explain why one species does not outcompete all others. Here, we explore the interplay between biotic and abiotic conditions in shaping amphibian communities at two ephemeral wetlands on Eglin Air Force Base, Florida. We document consistent community composition over 6 years of monitoring, resulting from a lack of species turnover and similar responses of all community members to environmental conditions. The similar dynamics of species argues against a storage effect as the sole mechanism for coexistence and instead points to niche partitioning as a more important factor. In support of this conclusion, we show that the degree of synchrony in breeding migrations only correlates with environmental conditions within species, not between species. The lack of pattern seen between species implies that individuals are somewhat constrained in the timing of breeding migrations, perhaps owing in part to competition with other community members. We hope that our work reinvigorates interest in amphibian communities and highlights ephemeral wetlands as model systems to study community dynamics in stochastic environments.

Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios.

Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025-2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.

Environmental Complexity and Reduced Stocking Density Promote Positive Behavioral Outcomes in Broiler Chickens.

The objective was to evaluate the impacts of a complex environment and stocking density on Ross 708 broiler chicken behaviors. Eight pens contained either high complexity (HC) or low complexity (LC) environments, and high (HD) or low (LD) density. Through focal-animal sampling, the frequency and duration of behaviors were recorded continuously for 5 min at two timepoints for one day in weeks 2, 4, and 7. Birds were active for 30% of the observed time, with birds showing more activity in HC compared with LC. Birds in HC pens spent more time preening and foraging than birds in LC pens, which was interpreted as a positive outcome. Dustbathing and play were not impacted by complexity, possibly due to the observation method. Birds were more frequently active at HD compared with LD, but did not spend more time being active, suggesting disturbances. Birds foraged, drank, and ate less frequently in HD compared with LD, presumably because birds had more difficulty accessing resources. Activity and active behaviors reduced as birds aged, while preening frequency increased, possibly due to frustration, but this was not confirmed. Perching was unaffected by age, showing a persistent motivation to perform the behavior. Our results indicate that a complex environment provides positive stimulation for foraging, locomotion, preening, and overall activity. Despite reduced activity, many benefits of the tested environmental complexity and low density persisted as birds aged.

Filial Cannibalism Leads to Chronic Nest Failure of Eastern Hellbender Salamanders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis).

AbstractIn species that provide parental care, parents will sometimes cannibalize their own young (i.e., filial cannibalism). Here, we quantified the frequency of whole-clutch filial cannibalism in a species of giant salamander (eastern hellbender; Cryptobranchus alleganiensis) that has experienced precipitous population declines with unknown causes. We used underwater artificial nesting shelters deployed across a gradient of upstream forest cover to assess the fates of 182 nests at 10 sites over 8 years. We found strong evidence that nest failure rates increased at sites with low riparian forest cover in the upstream catchment. At several sites, reproductive failure was 100%, mainly due to cannibalism by the caring male. The high incidence of filial cannibalism at degraded sites was not explained by evolutionary hypotheses for filial cannibalism based on poor adult body condition or low reproductive value of small clutches. Instead, larger clutches at degraded sites were most vulnerable to cannibalism. We hypothesize that high frequencies of filial cannibalism of large clutches in areas with low forest cover could be related to changes in water chemistry or siltation that influence parental physiology or that reduce the viability of eggs. Importantly, our results identify chronic nest failure as a possible mechanism contributing to population declines and observed geriatric age structure in this imperiled species.

Using historical dip net data to infer absence of flatwoods salamanders in stochastic environments.

Local extinction and undetected presence are two very different biological phenomena, but they can be challenging to differentiate. Stochastic environments hamper the development of standardized monitoring schemes for wildlife, and make it more challenging to plan and evaluate the success of conservation efforts. To avoid reintroductions of species at risk that could jeopardize extant populations, managers attempting translocation events require a higher level of confidence that a failure to confirm presence represents a true absence. For many pond breeding amphibians, monitoring of the breeding population occurs indirectly through larval surveys. Larval development and successful recruitment only occurs after a sequence of appropriate environmental conditions, thus it is possible for a breeding population of adults to exist at a site but for detectability of the species to be functionally zero. We investigate how annual variability in detection influences long-term monitoring efforts of Reticulated Flatwoods Salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi) breeding in 29 wetlands in Florida. Using 8 years of historic dip net data, we simulate plausible monitoring scenarios that incorporate environmental stochasticity into estimates of detection probability. We found that annual variation in environmental conditions precluded a high degree of certainty in predicting site status for low-intensity monitoring schemes. Uncertainty was partly alleviated by increasing survey effort, but even at the highest level of sampling intensity assessed, multiple years of monitoring are required to confidently determine presence/absence at a site. Combined with assessments of habitat quality and landscape connectivity, our results can be used to identify sites suitable for reintroduction efforts. Our methodologies can be generally applied to increase the effectiveness of surveys for diverse organisms for which annual variability in detectability is known.

Reconciling larval and adult sampling methods to model growth across life-stages.

Individual growth rates are intrinsically related to survival and lifetime reproductive success and hence, are key determinants of population growth. Efforts to quantify age-size relationships are hampered by difficulties in aging individuals in wild populations. In addition, species with complex life-histories often show distinct shifts in growth that cannot be readily accommodated by traditional modelling techniques. Amphibians are often characterized by rapid larval growth, cessation of growth prior to metamorphosis, and resumption of growth in the adult stage. Compounding issues of non-linear growth, amphibian monitoring programs typically sample larval and adult populations using dissimilar methods. Here we present the first multistage growth model that combines disparate data collected across life-history stages. We model the growth of the endangered Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander, Ambystoma bishopi, in a Bayesian framework, that accounts for unknown ages, individual heterogeneity, and reconciles dip-net and drift fence sampling designs. Flatwoods salamanders achieve 60% of growth in the first 3 months of life but can survive for up to 13 years as a terrestrial adult. We find evidence for marked variability in growth rate, the timing and age at metamorphosis, and maximum size, within populations. Average size of metamorphs in a given year appeared strongly dependent on hydroperiod, and differed by >10mm across years with successful recruitment. In contrast, variation in the sizes of emerging metamorphs appeared relatively constant across years. An understanding of growth will contribute to the development of population viability analyses for flatwoods salamanders, will guide management actions, and will ultimately aid the recovery of the species. Our model formulation has broad applicability to amphibians, and likely any stage-structured organism in which homogenous data cannot be collected across life-stages. The tendency to ignore stage-structure or omit non-conforming data in growth analyses can no longer be afforded given the high stakes of management decisions, particularly for endangered or at-risk populations.